The Securities Industry Association (SIA), a trade group that represents nearly 600 investment banks, brokers, mutual fund companies and other financial services firms, released a report on Dec. 9 that challenged claims that creating personal investment accounts within Social Security would be a windfall for such companies.

Such a reform, according to an SIA researcher, "is hardly likely to be a bonanza for Wall Street," providing between $39 billion and $279 billion to investment firms over the course of 75 years, which would represent between 1.2 percent and 8 percent of the total revenues that are expected for those companies during that time. In contrast, Austin Goolsbee, a University of Chicago professor who served as an adviser to the John Kerry campaign, projected in September that partial privatization of Social Security would bring in $940 billion for financial firms.

The amount of money these companies stand to make could be a key part of the reform debate that is expected early in President Bush's second term, since management fees would reduce the value of any investment accounts that are created.